Read e-book online Bayesian Probability Theory: Applications in the Physical PDF

By von der Linden W., Dose V., von Toussaint U.

ISBN-10: 1107035902

ISBN-13: 9781107035904

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Extra info for Bayesian Probability Theory: Applications in the Physical Sciences

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Similarly, in a type-2 box, there are tickets labelled by the integers 1, 2, . . , L(2) . Both boxes have the same total number M of tickets, which (α) corresponds to the normalization. M has to be chosen such that n1 := M/L(α) are integers, as they specify how often label 1 occurs in boxes of type α. Now we consider the following task. A single ticket is selected at random from an unknown box and it carries the integer value 1. Based on this information, we have to infer which type of box it came from.

E. the number of ‘heads’ in one combined experiment. ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ “9781107035904ar” — 2014/1/6 — 20:35 — page 16 — #30 ✐ 16 ✐ Basic definitions for frequentist statistics and Bayesian inference Of course, functions Y = f (X) of the random variable X can also be defined and studied. In this case Y is a random variable as well, and to each event ω we now assign the value f (x). Information about the ‘location’ of a probability mass function is the mean value. 2 (Discrete random variable) A random variable is called ‘discrete’ if it only takes discrete values.

What is the probability that the next draw will be black again? The required propositions are: • • • • • N: N balls have been drawn with replacement. n: n of the drawn balls are black. B The next draw will be a black ball. Eq : The intrinsic probability for a black ball in a single trial is q. e. all assumptions and all our prior knowledge. Invoking the marginalization rule, we can express the probability for B as 1 P (B|n, N, I) = dq P (B|Eq , n, N, I) P (Eq |n, N, I). 0 The first term is a sort of tautology, it is the probability that the next ball will be black, given the probability for a black ball in a single trial is q.

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Bayesian Probability Theory: Applications in the Physical Sciences by von der Linden W., Dose V., von Toussaint U.

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