Get Military Threats: The Costs of Coercion and the Price of PDF

By Professor Branislav L. Slantchev

ISBN-10: 0511778945

ISBN-13: 9780511778940

ISBN-10: 0521763185

ISBN-13: 9780521763189

Is army strength valuable in deciding upon which states get their voice heard? needs to states run a excessive probability of conflict to speak credible cause? Slantchev exhibits that states can usually receive concessions with out incurring larger dangers after they use army threats. not like diplomatic kinds of communique, actual army strikes enhance a state's anticipated functionality in warfare. If the opponent believes the probability, it will likely be likely to back off. army strikes also are inherently expensive, so purely resolved states are prepared to pay those charges. Slantchev argues that strong states can safe higher peaceable results and reduce the danger of conflict, however the chance of warfare will depend on the level to which a country is ready to take advantage of army threats to discourage demanding situations to peace and compel concessions with out struggling with. the cost of peace could accordingly be huge: states put money into army forces which are either high priced and unused.

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Additional resources for Military Threats: The Costs of Coercion and the Price of Peace

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The classical approach is to assume that actors either have credible threats or they do not, and then investigate the consequences of being unsure about each other’s commitments. In the context of our simple crisis game, the question reduces to the actor’s choice between capitulating under duress and fighting. Kilgour and Zagare (1991, 326) provide a cogent summary of this approach: by identifying the credibility of each player’s threat to retaliate with the probability that a player prefers retaliation to capitulation, we maintain consistency with both the traditional strategic literature, in which credibility is usually equated with believability, and with the literature of game theory, in which credibility is usually taken to be synonymous with rationality.

War is still worse than the status quo even for a resolved player. Observe now that before S2 decides whether to resist S1 ’s threat, she must estimate the likelihood that S1 will attack if she does. Because S1 8 The distribution functions have continuous strictly positive densities, f1 . / and f2 . /. 2 The Purely Informational Approach 21 will only attack if his credibility constraint is satisfied, S2 must estimate the likelihood that it is. Now, recall that S2 entered the game with a prior belief about S1 ’s valuation.

Of course, because this is a model of complete information, believability is not an issue. Before we turn to cases where it is, however, I should also note that in the 4 Schelling (1966); Mueller (1995); Freedman (2003). Zagare and Kilgour (2000, Ch. 3) provide an intelligent and very useful discussion of the concept of credibility and how it relates to rationality. 18 Commitment and Signaling in Coercive Bargaining deterrence literature in particular, credibility is taken to be a multiplicative function of capability and intent (Singer, 1984, 56–57).

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Military Threats: The Costs of Coercion and the Price of Peace by Professor Branislav L. Slantchev

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